Adaptive Project Planning by Louise Worsley & CHRISTOPHER WORSLEY

Author:Louise Worsley & CHRISTOPHER WORSLEY
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Published: 2019-01-11T13:19:04+00:00

Figure 4.5 Plotting an estimate

The situation is even worse, of course, if the distribution is skewed as the ‘most likely’ point (ML) in this circumstance is often a lot less than 50 percent of the total possible values. When the distribution is skewed, the mode and the mean do not lie neatly together.

Barry Boehm (1981) in his early work on software cost estimation presented the case against taking the midpoint and argued for a third value—the planning value upon which to base your plan. He used this to develop his cone of uncertainty model (Figure 4.6), with the ‘cost at completion’ being the planning value.

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